Aftershocks: the Lame Duck Agenda

Democrats rode a historically unprecedented wave to win control of the House and the Senate on Tuesday. While polling prior to the Election indicated a strong performance for the party, election returns exceeded their expectations with Democrats winning a number of seats that the party hasn’t held in decades. While ballots continue to be counted and several races are yet to be called, Democrats are on track to hold at least 255 House seats in January. In the Senate, Democrats flipped seven Republican seats: Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. Alaska and Mississippi were still uncalled Wednesday morning.

The newly elected Congress doesn’t take office until January 3, leaving the current Republican majorities a brief window of narrow control. This year’s lame duck is currently scheduled to last for five weeks of session before and after the Thanksgiving break. While much work remains to be done, the election results could portend an abbreviated lame duck session.

The Calendar

The House and Senate are both slated to return to Washington on Monday, November 9th. New Member Orientation—when the new Members-Elect visit Washington, learn about some of their new responsibilities and the logistics of setting up their offices—begins on the same day and lasts for 2 weeks. House and Senate Republicans had announced their intention to hold leadership Elections for their House and Senate caucuses on November 10th, but given this morning’s announcement by Speaker Mike Johnson that he will not seek to lead House Republicans in the minority, it would not be surprising to see those elections pushed back. House Democrats plan on holding their own leadership elections on November 18-19th and Senate Dems will wait until early December to organize their caucus for the new session. The top of the leadership hierarchy for Democrats in both houses is expected to be stable, but a host of lower positions will be filled at this time.

For Republicans, these are the last weeks of unified control until at least 2029, and their already small margins will continue to shrink as the lame duck goes on. Democratic Senator-Elect Sherrod Brown will be able to take office upon certification of his victory. Combined with continuing health issues for Members of both Houses and attrition from departing Members eager to move on from Congress, the Republican majority will likely continue to shrink before the end of the year.

Unfinished Business

Government funding. The stopgap funding for the federal government’s current fiscal year expires on December 11. None of the 12 annual spending bills have yet been passed into law. The House has passed three; the Senate Appropriations Committee has not reported a single bill. Appropriators continue to disagree on a number of issues, but the Administration’s request for a record-shattering $1.5 trillion in defense spending and Democratic demands to bar the Trump Administration from withholding money Congress has approved are the main sticking points.

The potential resolutions are either an omnibus, a package of a few bills, or another stopgap. Before the election, the expectation was a stopgap into mid-March, however, the last time a Republican Congress faced this after losing the House, in 2018, the two sides did not agree and a 35-day shutdown began December 22.

Surface transportation. The stopgap extended highway, transit and rail programs to December 11, but cut enacted transportation funding by about a quarter, including roughly 20 percent for transit and 82 percent for rail. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee's five-year bill, the BUILD America 250 Act, would authorize about $580 billion, but the Senate has not produced a bill. Another extension into 2027 is the likely result; the fight is over whether it restores the funding the stopgap cut.

Also expiring December 11:

• Flood insurance (NFIP)
• EPA's authority to collect chemical user fees under TSCA
• The 2015 cyber information-sharing law. The House NDAA carries a long-term renewal; otherwise it needs another short extension.

Expiring at the end of December 31:

Health programs. The 2.5 percent Medicare physician payment increase ends. So does mandatory funding for community health centers, along with TANF, the Special Diabetes Programs, the National Health Service Corps, public health preparedness programs and the delay of cuts to Medicare lab payments. Additional health-related items which have passed through committee or received floor consideration could be included in a package. These possibilities include health care transparency reforms, intellectual property reforms, PBM regulations, and biosimilar access bills.

Export-Import Bank. The bank's authority expires December 31.

Farm supports. Commodity and dairy supports run out December 31.

Tax. The list is relatively short this year as the 2025 tax law made many of the routine extensions permanent, but the CHIPS Act credit for advanced manufacturing investment is expiring.

Already lapsed:

Farm bill. The last extension expired September 30. The House passed its bill 224–200. The Senate Agriculture Committee reported its version 12–11 on party lines, and it needs 60 votes on the floor. The sticking point is how much of SNAP's cost shifts to states. In the meantime, USDA cannot approve new Conservation Reserve Program contracts. A short extension on the funding bill is more likely than a five-year bill.

FISA Section 702. The surveillance authority has been lapsed since June. Democrats refused to extend it while Bill Pulte was set to serve as acting Director of National Intelligence, and the President said he would oppose an extension not paired with the SAVE America Act. Collection has continued under existing court certifications.

Bipartisan possibilities:

The defense authorization bill. The House passed its NDAA 216–212 in July. In the Senate, a July 14 cloture vote failed 50–46, and the bill never reached the floor. The expected path is a compromise negotiated by the four Armed Services leaders that skips Senate floor passage of its own bill. The NDAA is regularly passed annually on a bipartisan vote and typically carries relatively noncontroversial bipartisan add-ons, the continued war in Iran has complicated negotiations on the bill this year.

Permitting. The first Senate vote of the session, on November 9, is cloture on the motion to proceed to the bipartisan permitting bill negotiated by Senators Capito, Whitehouse, Lee and Heinrich. Groups lobbying on the bill expect only technical changes in the manager's amendment, but tribal and environmental groups have sought additional amendments to the negotiated package. It needs 60 votes in the Senate and still has to pass the House.

Partisan Priorities:

Nominations. An end to the Republican Senate majority closes the window for easy confirmation for President Trump’s appointments and court nominations. Majority Leader Thune has responded by notifying committees that they must report pending nominations by November 20th to be included in an en bloc package and several of them have already scheduled meetings to meet that deadline. Despite assurances prior to Election Day that they intend to remain on the Court, Justices Alito and Thomas could potentially announce their retirements to allow for an accelerated nomination process before Democrats take charge of the chamber.

Reconciliation. Senate Budget Chair Ron Johnson says Thune committed in September to a reconciliation bill in the lame duck, and that bills like permitting would not dominate the schedule. Defense hawks want more than $300 billion for the Pentagon, but Thune has said the funding lacked the votes, even among Republicans. The debt limit, which could be breached as early as February 2027, could potentially also be included in a reconciliation bill to prevent Democrats from holding leverage over it when the majority switches. A reconciliation bill would demand total partisan unity and a significant amount of floor time in order to be passed into law during the five-week session.

Hegseth impeachment. Rep. Thomas Massie says he will force a vote in the first week, using House rules that let any member bring an impeachment resolution to the floor. The Speaker then has two legislative days to schedule it, and the House can vote on it or vote to table it. The result turns on Republican defections and on who shows up.