Northern Exposure: the looming Canada Tariff Standoff

Senate Democrats have moved in near-lockstep against Trump’s escalating tariff war with Canada, deploying floor votes, bipartisan legislation, and a new bill targeting the president’s statutory authority. The divergence that exists is almost entirely in the House, where a small number of Democrats have repeatedly backed the tariffs throughout the second Trump Administration. That distinction matters now. On August 22, the Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods by invoking Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 for the first time in its history. Canada responded by announcing matching counter-tariffs, dollar for dollar, on $27.6 billion in U.S. exports, set to take effect September 8. Those duties cover steel and aluminum at 50%, plus dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics.

What Senate Democrats have done

The Senate Democratic caucus has pursued three distinct tracks against the President’s trade policies. The first is floor votes. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) sponsored a joint resolution to terminate the national emergency declaration Trump used to impose earlier IEEPA-based Canada tariffs. The Senate passed it 50-46 in October 2025, with Sens. Warner (D-VA) and Klobuchar (D-MN) as co-leads alongside Minority Leader Schumer. The House eventually passed its own legislation in February 2026, led by Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY). The second track is targeted legislation. In July 2025, Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT), a Finance Committee member, introduced the CANADA Act — the Creating Access to Necessary American-Canadian Duty Adjustments Act — which would exempt U.S.-owned small businesses from Canada tariffs. Welch led Schumer, Shaheen (D-NH), Kaine, Markey (D-MA), and Wyden on the Democratic side, with Collins (R-ME) and Murkowski (R-AK) as Republican co-sponsors. The bill has not received a floor vote.

The third track is the most consequential for the current moment. On July 22, Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) introduced the Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act of 2026, a 35-page bill that would eliminate Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Act — the exact authority Trump used for the August 22 tariffs — along with Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. The bill would also create a Joint Committee on Tariffs and Trade, comprising five members each from the Senate Finance Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee, with authority to review presidential tariff proposals within 30 days and recommend them to Congress for a vote. Wyden framed the bill as a structural fix: “Congress must reassert its authority over trade and tariffs to stop any president from being able to unilaterally change the worldwide economy at the click of a button.” The White House called the bill a political stunt and it has not moved in a Republican-controlled Congress.

Where the divergence actually is

Rep. Jared Golden, who represents Maine’s rural 2nd District and is not seeking reelection, backed Trump’s 50% tariffs on Canadian imports and said any Canadian retaliation “won’t go well for them.” His position reflects a consistent pattern: the district has backed Trump three times, and Golden has broken from Democratic leadership in refusing to condemn the President’s tariffs in the past. If Golden’s reticence is reflective of his state, then Maine’s Senate race is where tariff politics could get complicated for Democrats. Troy Jackson, the Democratic challenger to Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), has attacked Collins for not doing enough to stop the tariffs, posting that she “has completely failed to stop him” despite having “concerns.” Collins has voted to terminate the tariffs and written to the Commerce Secretary and USTR urging relief for Maine businesses, but Jackson’s line of attack — that opposition without results is insufficient — is the argument Democratic candidates in border-state and manufacturing-heavy races are likely to press through November.

Canada’s counter-tariffs were designed with political geography in mind. The September 8 package targets steel and aluminum at 50%, dairy, seafood, appliances, and wood products — sectors concentrated in states with competitive Senate races. Maine’s lobster and lumber industries are directly exposed. So are Wisconsin dairy, Ohio steel, and Michigan auto supply chains.

What Democrats would do with the majority

Ad hoc reactions to Trump’s trade policy in the first year of his second Administration have congealed into a more cohesive Democratic policy on trade authority in the second. Wyden’s Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act is the most detailed statement of what the Finance Committee’s ranking Democrat wants: eliminate the statutory tools Trump has used most aggressively, create a mandatory congressional review process, and make USTR an independent agency. Kaine’s IEEPA resolution framework would remain available as a floor tool to force Republicans to vote on specific tariff actions. The CANADA Act’s small-business carve-out represents a narrower, more bipartisan-friendly approach that attracted Collins and Murkowski without requiring a full repeal of the tariff regime. That bill’s structure suggests Democrats understand that while a full rollback may not be achievable in the majority, targeted relief legislation is a more viable near-term strategy.

The immediate question is whether the September 8 Canadian retaliation changes the political math in the Senate. USTR Jamieson Greer said this week the administration would not “just sit down and take” further Canadian retaliation, signaling escalation rather than negotiation. That posture puts pressure on Republican senators in affected states — and gives Democrats new avenues to pursue before the midterms. Whether any of those proposals become statute is a different question, as House Republicans have shown no indication they intend to work with Democrats on efforts to rein in the Administration’s tariff authority.